Visit This Place!!

Posted on May 1, 2010 by Rhodo Zeb
Triangular Building in Shanghai

Triangular Building in Shanghai


You know, I never really thought too much about what it would really be like, the Expo I mean.


Of course, for years now there has always been this discussion and that plan, this project and that meeting. But I just never really comprehended what would happen, what the experience would really feel like.


Until now. For a week or so now, the effect can be clearly felt. At first is was less distinct, a few more people on the subway, a few more cars on the road, nothing too clear-cut. But for a week already now, its become clear that the visitors have arrived in force, both from other areas of China and of course outside China. The distinguishing features are becoming evident, by which I mostly mean little things, clothing and so on. And of course, the plethora of accents and dialects. Although I must say so far I have been mostly hearing clean, unaccented Mandarin. Funny how standards are really useful sometimes.


Previously, the only noticeable difference was the staring. Is he a tourist? Maybe here for the Expo? Every searching eye seemed to enquire. It was almost like old times!


But now the real gawkers are here, and I realize this is a huge step forward for Shanghai and China. Its just a wonderful event, and I see the pride and happiness in the eyes of a lot of people these days. They want the world to see Shanghai and what has been accomplished so far.


Man, this is going to be so great. Get here if you can, this is an exciting place to be!


Posted in Bridges, China, Shanghai | Tagged | Leave a comment

Too Many People Involved In The Game

Posted on April 10, 2010 by Rhodo Zeb

Michael Shaw is a Johnny-come-never. And he (almost) pulled out a classic line, too. Damn, not bad for an amateur.


Shoe on the Other Foot


The photo shows a squatter camp for poor white South Africans in Krugersdorp.

In the post by Reuters photographer Finbarr O’Reilly, you’ll see — with the impact of black affirmative action and the slumping economy — that poor whites aren’t faring that well. Although there are over 2,000 black squatter camps in South Africa, the number of whites in the 80 camps around the capital experiencing what is sometimes called “reverse apartheid” represent a growing, if largely undiscussed problem in the country.



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You can't change the plan when it's made

Posted on April 9, 2010 by Rhodo Zeb

Krugman laid a big egg a couple weeks ago, to such an extent that I cannot fail to respond. The analysis is wrong and the policy prescriptions are just horrendous.


But enough of my bald assertions, let’s go straight to the tape:


China’s policy of keeping its currency, the renminbi, undervalued has become a significant drag on global economic recovery.



Fine, I don’t have a problem with this, I trust Paul’s judgment.


The International Monetary Fund expects China to have a 2010 current surplus of more than $450 billion — 10 times the 2003 figure. This is the most distortionary exchange rate policy any major nation has ever followed.



Significant and powerful, by focusing on the costs to the Chinese government of maintaining the current exchange rate. So far, Krugman’s aim is dead on.


Most of the world’s large economies are stuck in a liquidity trap — deeply depressed, but unable to generate a recovery by cutting interest rates because the relevant rates are already near zero. China, by engineering an unwarranted trade surplus, is in effect imposing an anti-stimulus on these economies, which they can’t offset.



Ok, this is obviously an issue. However, notice how the pejorative language begins to pop in. ‘Unwarranted’ trade surplus, you say? Do tell! Is that an international economics faux pas? By which standard is this deemed as unwarranted?


It is unfortunate, is it not, that the relevant interest rates are already near zero. That sounds a lot like poor economic management to me. And so I wonder why, precisely, the trade surplus is ‘unwarranted’ while the interest rates just are where they are, as if by magic. Of course, this is another failing of the Bush Administration, along with all the debt they kindly incurred on our behalf. I think Paul should have gotten a dig in here, but in any case I do not like this use of language at all.


But let’s move right on to the policy prescriptions:


So how should we respond?



Watch him go in entirely the wrong direction from here.


Treasury must issue a report identifying nations that “manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade.” The law’s intent is clear: the report should be a factual determination, not a policy statement. In practice, however, Treasury has been both unwilling to take action on the renminbi and unwilling to do what the law requires, namely explain to Congress why it isn’t taking action.


Oh, Snap! As the kids said back when I was still a resident of the good-old USA. A Treasury finding of manipulation! Those Mandarins in Beijing will be shaking in their boots when that one comes out!!


Of course, one needs to conveniently forget how another government organization under the Federal government identifies the biggest human rights violators every year, in a report that is greatly affected by political concerns. Just one example of how serious or significant ‘government reports’ are.


An angry denunciation will be properly viewed as nothing more than a political complaint. If the argument is that Treasury needs to do this prior to other defensive actions, then that would be different. But Krugman does not seem to assert that the report is a required precursor to the actions he will now advocate:



In 1971 the United States dealt with a similar but much less severe problem of foreign undervaluation by imposing a temporary 10 percent surcharge on imports, which was removed a few months later after Germany, Japan and other nations raised the dollar value of their currencies. At this point, it’s hard to see China changing its policies unless faced with the threat of similar action — except that this time the surcharge would have to be much larger, say 25 percent.



Oh great, let’s start a global trade war on par with any ever seen before.


Remember the trade agreements China signed in order to join the WTO? Well apparently the rules have changed without your permission! How’s about that for supporting law and international agreements! Think for just a second how that looks from the Chinese perspective. One small bump in the road and all those ‘binding’ agreements are cast aside, ditched on an old abandoned highway.


We need to think in terms of mutuality. Think about what the Chinese need and want before talking about how to induce the Chinese to work with us.


In order to tackle this problem, (and I do agree this is a problem, the Yuan is fundamentally overvalued), everyone should first stop talking about ‘currency manipulation’. This term is highly pejorative for a policy that China has followed for over a decade, without complaint until about 2005 (Paul says 2003 but he is deep in economic circles). Indeed, China’s currency was a stabilizing force back in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis.


Now, this policy, a policy a large number of countries follow, is suddenly manipulation.


The disconnect in this piece is all the more obvious when you realize that Paul touches directly on Chinese concerns:


It’s true that if China dumped its U.S. assets the value of the dollar would fall against other major currencies, such as the euro. But that would be a good thing for the United States, since it would make our goods more competitive and reduce our trade deficit. On the other hand, it would be a bad thing for China, which would suffer large losses on its dollar holdings. In short, right now America has China over a barrel, not the other way around.

And yet, despite having China ‘over a barrel’, we must start a trade war to correct the improper pegging of the dollar. I think this internal inconsistency (at multiple levels) should be fairly apparent by now.


What does China need and want? Krugman points to one major aspect: they don’t want the dollar to fall too far. China is long dollars, and they want their investment to pay off. That they are long dollars tells us much about both their trust in US economic management as it does about the folly that was the Bush Administration. That trust will not be rebuilt in a day, and will not be fostered by Krugman’s quite radical policy prescription.


You can’t blame the Chinese for going to bat for their export industry. It is the export industry that helped China work again, helped the government create jobs, helped numerous areas to develop rapidly. Out of all the mass of China’s economy, the export industry stands out both in size and in national coverage. You can certainly expect China to consistently support the export industry as much as possible.


If you read the preceding carefully you noticed the interesting phrasing ‘helped the government create jobs’. In China, the government is responsible for everything. I am not saying that in a negative or positive way, it is just a fact of life. The government is effectively responsible for making sure the people have jobs. Read the Constitution and you will understand.


The export industry has created jobs for millions of people, and therefore is deserving of special protections.


What Krugman should do is focus on mutuality to find solutions.


Krugman says that this is a lose-lose. He says the Western recovery is being artificially depressed by China’s policies.


This is a big economic game, and the US has made the rules. If China’s policy is win-lose, then China should go ahead and take their gains from this round of the game. That is just how it works, and getting upset about it is highly destabilizing. Bush’s economic mismanagement has led to losses, as they were destined to, and so the losses must be realized. The US is a horribly wasteful country and must change fundamentally. Isn’t that what the IMF tells developing countries?


If China’s policy is lose-lose, then make the case directly. China’s export industry obviously needs markets in which to sell, and so compromise can be reached because of fundamental mutuality.


Another issue of major importance to China is the inflation rate, a significant source of destabilization. I believe that the persistent and quite serious inflation of the past years is due to restrictive international investment policies on external investments. Paul says the exchange rate is maintained by outflows of capital, and I contend that even more open market operations would be necessary to stem the inflation pressures domestically.


A wave of Chinese money is eager to invest in the US, at this time of historically low price levels, and China’s policies (and perhaps other factors) prevent that to some extent. In my mind, one can expect the kind of buy-in the US received from Japan back in the late 80s, only supersized, as only the Chinese can do. Indeed, I believe that there is an enormous amount of hot money floating around China which would be better invested overseas. When the rich are looking to garlic to make money (as well as the insanely overheated real estate market) you know there is a lack of good opportunities.


My economic analysis might be totally off, but that’s not important. What matters is that we agree to work through the problem logically, without unnecessary, aggressive, rhetoric. There has been entirely too much of that in past years.


And a trade war is what we all need least.


Posted in Macro-economics, us.politics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Weep, Sad Freaks of the Nation

Posted on April 9, 2010 by Rhodo Zeb



Furniture.


I will stand with you. I must. Because…



Just because of the repression I experienced, don’t think that other people won’t do what I did. That’s not human nature,” Gao said. “If there’s one more of me or one less of me in the field, it doesn’t matter. These years we’ve heard that a lot of others are eager to try. I still want to talk with them and hope they can learn a lesson from me.



Yes, precisely correct. Not a coward, and not a failure, but instead, a hero. And yet the cowards dominate, the f*cking bastards.


I would say jail them or execute them. But I have some unfinished business of my own to contend with.


China needs more law, not less, I must always remember this. Thank god for the fighters, though they may fall in battle, may suffer, may fail.


China has just as strong a tradition of martyrdom as any culture on the face of this beautiful earth.


They fight for all of us. And we will support them.


Posted in China, International Justice, Law | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

At the Zenith, our Dead Dreams Awake

Posted on February 13, 2010 by Rhodo Zeb

Good riddence to bad rubbish. A rotten end to a rotten year. The weather has been cold and rainy in Shanghai, rainy as it has been all year. And damn chilly.


Crates of secrets, pilling up by the day, trials and allegations notwithstanding. Cao. Leaders talking tough but reforming nothing. Torture on the menu across the board, more legitimized then ever.


Then again, torture has always been on the menu. Its just that we used to limit it to Latin and South America.


Funny how these things spread. One could write a book, so to speak.


That’s really about it. Hope 2010 will be better.


But Tyler Cowen says last year was a banner year for rule of law, so let’s analyze the next Tyler Cowen piece for additional clues to this trending issue. So that’s something.


Posted in International Justice, Law | Tagged | Leave a comment

Losing Ground – No Words

Posted on January 4, 2010 by Rhodo Zeb

Well, I sort of missed out on the whole sum-up post to close out 09. It was an interesting year, that’s for sure.


What 2009 should be most remembered for, however, is quite simple: it was the year where the rule of law regressed and became more decadent and dishonest than ever before. And if you know anything about the history of for-profit incarceration (well, not to mention war) you may realize the serious fault-lines between public justice and private profit. At the most basic level, everyone knows there are people that can ‘lose your file’; the problem is how to build a system with lasting integrity.


2009 was a year where the crimes of the Bush Administration were swept under the rug, where Gonzo got screwed but torture-lover Yoo just went back to Berkeley to teach Admin law. Where we shouldn’t be ‘backward-looking’ much like the crooked cop doesn’t look back while his business partners are doing their work.


Millions of dollars got funneled around, millions in no bid contracts, millions lost and stolen and ‘mis-appropriated’. And somehow the ‘legal community’ is still back wrestling with the issue of criminal immunity for these contractors. Since when was the flexible, organic system I learned about in law school so incapable of calling a halt to honoring these mandatory arbitration clauses? Since when did a private contract trump criminal law?


We have to go back in the story, at least until Enron, to see how things have gone. There, massive fraud was carried out upon the government and individuals, and nothing was done about it. Couple people went to jail, and all those workers lost out on their pensions while shareholders got screwed, too.


Then of course we had our illegal president, whose people walked roughshod over legal principals and rule of law in favor of their plenary power concepts and fancy arguments. Unfortunately, they also had a good part of the judiciary as well, in the form of the Federalist Society, so there was little pushback…


Which concepts, of course, they abandoned the second they lost the executive branch, which is why usually we shouldn’t end up in this position unless we have a corroded system, because both parties are supposed to understand that they risk future abuse at the hands of the other party through the granting of such extraordinary power. Duh. Its not rocket science, some would even (irrationally, I might add) argue that such an outcome is impossible because it is too irrational, but anyway here we are.


The excessive abuses of the Bush Administration, while some may refrain from calling crimes, must be investigated fully, or Rule of Law will have been dealt a mortal blow by its most vocal supporter for decades.


How can US and international law be ignored, sneered at in fact, with no response?


Only a dead thing behaves this way…


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In Death You Sing

Posted on January 3, 2010 by Rhodo Zeb

The forces of tyranny simply do not understand. They will always overstep their bounds, again and again, until they destroy themselves. Such is the nature of their need for control, it must escalate until it consumes itself.


Ahmadinejad has lost his legitimacy, and the current leadership must bear the responsibility for these crimes as well, and so have effectively gutted their moral authority. These leaders will fall within a period of time, perhaps 18 months as a safe outer limit.


However the Iranian system of government need not, and may well not, be destroyed at the same time. The popular complaints that are leading people into the streets (and have been, now, for about half a year) do not seem to be religious in nature, and the tacit support of the mullahs will wane as the abuses of the power structure become myriad and well-known.


There are people, professional, serious people who are in the business of predicting the fall of foreign political systems, and they are wrong 99% of the time, and most of the stuff that comes out of their mouths is complete drivel. Even the popular protests we have seen in Iran do not mean the social structure will change enormously. Indeed, probably the normal way forward for a culture would be incremental change rather than upheaval, and that could still be possible.


The recent progress in Iran should be seen for what it is: a crumbling structure that has glommed onto the legitimate social system and is desperately trying to survive.


I actually conceived of this post and title when I read of one young man who was killed prior to the fighting in which 8 people were killed by security forces. The news report of this earlier incident mentioned that he was the son of a mullah of some seniority. And I thought that would be a good example of a margin analysis. Here, at least, is one family who can’t ignore the abuses of the government any longer.


You can see the character of an organization when they are under siege. What happened from the very beginning of the troubles? As soon as they started arresting people, there were reports of torture and brutality. The Basij seem to be almost uncontrolled in their abuses.


First Neda. Now this nameless boy is forgotten to time, subsumed within the better-connected young man killed a day or so later. How much farther can you soldier on, having committed so many crimes. When will the crimes rise to the level of past regimes?


Back then I wrote:


What I noticed as I dug into the Iranian situation was how many from within the power structure had already been arrested, even prior to the election. Every article mentioned a cleric or former high government official as being arrested or otherwise marginalized. Might I suggest this is not a pleasant environment?

Oh, did you think I was concerned about the lack of legal protections for the people in the streets? No, no, the real problem is that there are no legal restrictions preventing the government from arresting anyone they want, including former Prime Ministers and the like, their children, and pretty much anyone else they want. That is a real problem, and leads to a very unstable system.



No independent legal structure at all leads, inevitably, to the brutality we have at present. The pressure continues to mount. Can they just put everyone into jail and be done with it?


[Update] The Curv is on the case while The Man is slacking. Typical:


A US doctor and a development consultant visited Iran in May to study a primary healthcare system that has cut infant mortality by more than two-thirds since the Islamic revolution in 1979.


Then, in October, five top Iranian doctors, including a senior official at the health ministry in Tehran, were quietly brought to Mississippi to advise on how the system could be implemented there.



Its a system which is, in many ways, working. Even though a strong case could be made for total organizational failure within the mullahocracy, I doubt that Iranians feel that strongly.


The upheavals at present are going to make many predict massive change, and they will be wrong.


[Updated Update]


And the baritone Professorship comes in from the wings:


Nearly 90 professors at Tehran University have told Iran’s supreme leader that ongoing violence against protesters shows the weakness of the country’s leadership, a pro-reform Web site reported Monday, reflecting a growing willingness to risk careers and studies to challenge the ruling clerics.
…
The letter signed by the 88 instructors was issued as university students around Iran staged acts of defiance — including hunger strikes and exam boycotts — to protest reported arrests and intimidation by hard-line forces, according to witnesses and reformist Web sites.
…
The letter by the Tehran University professors — posted on the Greenroad Web site — called the attacks on opposition protesters a sign of weakness in the ruling system. It also urged Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to order arrests over the hard-line crackdown, which intensified after protesters began chanting slogans against the supreme leader.



Posted in International Justice, Law | Tagged | 2 Comments

Ergo Space Pig

Posted on December 26, 2009 by Rhodo Zeb

Shanghai can be fun sometimes.


Recently I was on the subway at a very light time of the day. Nearby were two tourists or business-folk, Shandong perhaps, with a nice, clean Northern accent. Not far away, in different directions, were two young men, each on their mobiles.


Of course, being Shanghai, both of these young guys were talking loudly into their phones. That’s almost a given.


I like to listen to the accents I hear outside, so I listened to each of them for a bit.


One was speaking his local language, but it was a somewhat recognizable dialect. It was probably not related to Shanghai language at all, but it was within the gambit of the language amalgamation that exists within the center city, that you might come across in some transaction or other. He could have been understandable, if it were necessary, without a doubt, although to say he could speak Mandarin or Shanghaihua proper was unclear. I probably could have a one in four chance of guessing the general area he was from (Subei and Anhui, of course, then Henan and Jiangxi I suppose).


The other guy was speaking something that sounded like it came from the top of a mountain. Nothing he said was the least bit recognizable. It was not Mandarin nor anything else 99% of people in China could understand.


And the one Northerner turned to the other and said, ‘Wow, these Shanghai people sure talk funny, don’t they?’


Buddy, you have no idea.


Posted in China, Shanghai | Tagged | Leave a comment

I'm a Flash, I'm a Fake

Posted on December 26, 2009 by Rhodo Zeb

I was asked by Dan Harris through email to remove a comment on the most recent CDE post, informing me that it was spoofed.


This makes me wonder whether the original email supposedly from CDE to me was spoofed as well. For this reason, I think the CDE bashing is about over. Anyone who does any due diligence will find enough to concern them. I am assuming organizations like the US Chamber of Commerce have cut ties with this guy already.


Any more emails sent to me purporting to be from CDE or his minions will certainly not be posted here. Its become tedious.


Posted in China | Tagged | Leave a comment

On Any Human Sanitation Day

Posted on December 19, 2009 by Rhodo Zeb

Your Web Content


From:
“Chris Devonshire Ellis”
To:
“rhodozeb@yahoo.com”
Cc:
“Andy Scott” (andy.scott@china-briefing.com), “Richard Hoffmann” (richard.Hoffmann@dezshira.com)


Dear Mr. Zeb;

I have noticed your comment on your website here:

http://www.gongshangfa.com/2009/03/20/chris-devonshire-ellis-fake-lawyer-fake-quitter-just-fake/http://www.gongshangfa.com/2009/03/20/chris-devonshire-ellis-fake-lawyer-fake-quitter-just-fake/

I would like to point out to you that the story you have run is inaccurate, was not clarified concerning content by you with me, and is libelous. Accordingly, I request that you kindly remove the content in its entirety. I regret that failure to do so within the next seven days will result in me taking the matter further, including with the following organizations:

Legal Committee of the American Chamber of Commerce in China ;

Your pertinent bar association in the United States ;

Legal action for redress and financial compensation for damages as may be necessary, either in Shanghai or in the United States .

I have deployed a US based specialist internet abuse legal team in New York to track down the protagonists of the online campaign against me and to seek prosecution and closure of offending sites. This includes your commentary. I trust it will not be necessary for me to involve them in this matter and that we can put the issue behind us as a matter of enthusiastic, yet ill informed gossip. Your cooperation in removing your content would be appreciated.

Yours sincerely;

Chris Devonshire-Ellis

Founding Partner

Dezan Shira & Associates


I love it. “US based specialist internet abuse legal team”?? How many pints do you need to have in you before you write that? Let me see:


US-based, specialist, internet-abuse legal team? No.


US based specialist internet-abuse legal-team? No.


It just doesn’t scan. The gift that keeps on giving, this one. I bet he has put the New York Law Firm on retainer to handle this matter and close offending sites.


Anyway, this was sent five days ago. My posts on this fraud are staying up.


Posted in Law, Self-correcting Systems | Tagged , | 6 Comments