This seems like a good time to step back from the day to day atrocities that is our world, during these dark days. These are going to be some tough times, and it doesn’t look good for the medium term going forward. I was chatting with a friend and we both could remember quite a few years there (say 2003-2007) where the internet restrictions were quite manageable. Today, it is absolutely insane, with the three major systems/hosters down, yahoo search results blocked at the link-out (which has come up before from time to time), Tweter or whatever and many so-called ‘social’ sites…is that the whole list? I am certainly missing something… oh yes Danwei AND TPD! Plus of course the incidentals and et ceteras.
In other words, this is a lockdown that we haven’t seen since early 2002. And its not going away, not with China full of US cash (and inflation, natch) and the US having all sorts of problems. This is a more confident China, and at the political level, that means arrogance; I think that is a truism for any political system or country. The US was doing pretty good on the whole arrogance thing for quite some time, iirc.
I have long wished to write a piece with the subject of ‘Where the Rubber hits the Road’, in order to talk about the interface and communication between the citizenry, collectively or individually, and the government. If only I had the perfect title perhaps I could get started.
The concept is that you need to look at the frequency and nature of direct government-citizen contact. If you have a great deal of negative contact, this creates a certain friction, and you have a system (somewhat, I theorize) that is thereby less stable. Of course, many have theorized that systems that hide information will naturally be plagued by the power of wild rumor, but that is not directly on point here.
The only reason that the corrupt, failed US justice system is able to exist in an otherwise stable country is that, somehow, it has learned to generally not impact the majority of people. The poor have to deal with it, but the wealthier and middle class largely do not, or at least that is the way it is supposed to work, before the US turned into Prison Nation. More on that on another day.
Nonetheless, we have got political prisoners left and right at the moment, and lots of writers, artists and professionals who have (admirably) stuck their necks out for justice and asked the government to follow the law and not act with impunity towards people who are not in the wrong. The pride and commitment of these men and women cannot be praised enough. They are standing up, in the face of great uncertainty, for what they know is right. I can only hope their their service is not called upon.
That is in the professional world. But at the mass level, we also have constant negative government-citizen contact. Bloggers get their blog posts deleted unceremoniously. No feedback, no idea why or who decided or anything. Nothing like a transparent process that can be understood and followed. Great uncertainty about where the lines are is supposed to be a bug, not a feature.
Comments and threads get deleted similarly. I still remember during the events in Guizhou I believe, which was the girl who died (Neil Young, anyone?) down by the river. One person continued to post, again and again, the same thread, which had gotten derivative and was about government censorship. ‘You keep deleting and I will keep posting, ok?’
As if to reinforce this message, the other day (I have been struggling with this post for some time now) I was on my bike and the crossing guard started talking to me in rush hour traffic, and he praised the US, which of course I responded with modesty. No, no, he said, the US is good and so on and, within two minutes, just as the light changed, loud as all get out, ‘You (Americans) are free! That’s why you are great!’
Citizens in China are, by and large, not pushovers and don’t (like everyone, I would assume) like to be handled disrespectfully. Government officials are, conversely, quite good at congratulating themselves, often in multiple ways. In the larger society there is a great deal of pent up emotion, to say the least. Something has got to give, and I don’t want to speculate one way or another what that might be, but I do hold out hope that what will ‘give’ will be the government’s resistance to rule of law for all, from accused criminals to high government officials.
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All of this bad stuff, all of these issues, are just a lead-in to my thesis: I believe China can overcome these difficulties and can (continue to) become more just, more free, and, incidentally, wealthier.
And more stable, while you are at it, and China can help to usher in a new era of global stability, once the US gets back on its feet after the tragedy that was Bush/Cheney. And maybe, just maybe, this new equilibrium position can be more just, if only slightly.
This belief is based on my long observations from the standpoint of Shanghai. I see no reason whatsoever why Chinese society cannot continue to increase education levels, improve systems of fairness and justice, and grow the private economy. Yes, there are closets and secrets, and these will be difficult to confront. But the path we are on seems (seemed until recently) to be very much the path to first-world status, indeed world-class status, so long as the populist policies continue, the society continues to evolve, and the economy grows.
In my decade-plus on the Mainland, almost exclusively in Shanghai, I have seen a society normalize and, in many ways, harmonize. I can say without reservation that everyone understands the value of stability as distinct from any individual rights. Low crime levels and little public violence benefit everyone and reduce risk. Proud parents in Shanghai look forward to their children having a plethora of opportunities in the future, and will not be amused when those opportunities are taken away, I would warrant. And if you aren’t afraid of a large bunch of angry Shanghainese you don’t know this town.
Shanghai has become a largely peaceful, prosperous city, and (other than perhaps the younger generation ‘who don’t know history’) people understand that such an environment is not to be taken for granted. The government and the party have caused this, and everyone understands that you need a somewhat strong hand to enforce stability. Cite Jackie Chan’s ‘controversial’ comments and a comment by Evan Osnos that I cannot locate now, about how the students back in 89 could have ushered in another era of complete chaos (which is true, but doesn’t absolve Li Peng to any great extent). People here have lived through some really, really bad times in recent history and have no intention of going back to the old ways.
The marks of the Cultural Revolution still can be seen in this society, if you know where to look. The generation over 40 was hard hit, and you will find all sorts of reactions to the psychological violence of the period, even physical limitations caused by the mental anguish. I have even known a man who lost both his hands in the insanity of accusations, arrests, and…total lack of any coherent law.
To compare the elderly and the young here is a wonderful study in contrasts. The elderly are often rude and even borderline offensive, contemptuous of wai di ren and suspicious of foreigners, arrogant as Shanghai Ning and ready to tell anyone all about it.
The young have grown up in a peaceful and safe society, gotten good education, and look forward to a bright future. Their parents have taught them pretty well oftentimes, although of course there are lots of dysfunctional families.
Do the bright dreams of the young in China matter? Do they matter in Iran? Will they eventually be dashed on the rocks of history, like many before? The crates of secrets are piling up as we speak, and when they are finally unpacked, as they must be…it will not be pretty.
If the highly arbitrary ‘state secrets’ and ‘endangering public stability’ charges (and tax-related charges, let us not forget) that the government uses are leveled at a significant portion of the population, you would basically have a more organized cultural revolution, and that is not going to be allowed to happen I don’t think, not again. Or at least there is a limit somewhere that cannot be exceeded for long. For example, I just open the old standby today, and here we have a family in turmoil, broken apart potentially forever, all because of the political fear of the Party and because of the unclear rules and zealous (is there any other kind) prosecutors. Simply because someone walked with other people somewhere. Look at that story carefully. His own People’s Daily colleagues are telling him to flee. Think about that.
Friction.
The economic crisis is causing ever more turmoil within China, and this will continue for some time. Just got bad economic news from a friend out of the industrial north, inland; many, many jobs have been lost at the manufacturing level. Shanghai and some other areas are still doing fine, but economic activity at the consumer level has decreased dramatically. It is funny how we all forget how it used to be. Remember the tight-fisted Chinese consumer of just a decade ago? I remember well how Newsweek (or Time, one of these rags) characterized the institution of Golden Week as a naked ploy by an evil regime to get the economy moving by making people spend.
China can work its way through these problems. Of this I am sure. I have confidence in the people, and the government, in tandem. The nation can pull together and find solutions, as they have done for a couple solid decades now, to great benefit to the vast majority of people (present and future). I hope the government understands the costs of a serious crackdown, as much, much knowledge and wealth will be stripped from the nation in such an event, but I also understand the need for a stable government to create fairness and…stability.