I am heartened somewhat by the news of the cease-fire in the Swat Valley. And it remains to be seen if the cease fire can hold. However, assuming the cease-fire can be maintained, I consider this a positive step. Alone, of course, it would appear as if the Pakistani government is conceding defeat; but with follow-on efforts the region could move forward and, hopefully, stabilize. The government was getting nowhere militarily or culturally, and so this is probably a better way forward.
Pakistan is well outside my area of expertise, and I highlight this development, along with my recent comments on Hillary’s trip to China, to get at a bedrock fact that I believe is extremely important: Societies and cultures must evolve internally, and external pressures often are counter-productive.
There are exceptional cases, of course, and external pressures can be useful. However, oftentimes external pressures lead to a culture turning inward, rejecting outside influences, forcing individuals who are on the outskirts of the culture back inside (here I am referring to people from the culture who are not close adherents to the cultural mores, such as the teenage boy who doesn’t want to attend religious services or the girl who refuses an arranged marriage).
Outside organizations have a role to play, but must not overplay their hand. The danger is that the culture will come to see itself as under attack, and circling the wagons, as mentioned above, will be the likely reaction. Here in China, we know that type of mentality, and it boggles the minds of some. However, this is the predictable result of decades of attacks at a cultural level.